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ESL Pro League Season 20 Playoffs: Preview and Predictions
After two weeks of relentless action in Malta for ESL Pro League Season 20, we’ve finally reached the playoffs, where the top-performing teams will battle it out for a chance at glory. Unlike previous seasons, this iteration of Pro League has been full of surprises, with some top dogs faltering and underdogs rising to the occasion.
One of the biggest surprises came from MOUZ, who suffered an early exit from the group stage after disappointing losses to Imperial Esports and Complexity, the latter twice in both the middle and lower brackets.
This marks the second time this year that Kamil "siuhy" Szkaradek’s squad fails to reach the playoffs, the first being at IEM Dallas. Despite this setback, MOUZ can take solace in their otherwise successful year, which includes trophy lifts at ESL Pro League Season 19 and BetBoom Dacha Belgrade.
Conversely, BIG emerged as the event's dark horse, putting on a commendable run in the middle bracket by defeating both Fnatic and Complexity to secure their spot in the round of 16.
This marks BIG's first playoffs appearance this year, a notable achievement considering their substantial roster changes. However, their real challenge lies ahead, as they will face The MongolZ. But, before getting into that matchup, let’s break down the playoffs format and schedule.
Format and Schedule
The playoffs will follow a single-elimination bracket format. All matches, except for the Grand Final, will be BO3s. The Grand Final will be a BO5, adding an extra layer of excitement and challenge to determine the ultimate winner.
Playoffs Schedule:
Round of 16:
Tuesday, September 17th
- 13:00 pm CET
- 16:15 pm CET
- 19:30 pm CET
Wednesday, September 18th
- 13:00 pm CET
- Eternal Fire vs. BIG/The MongolZ winner
- MIBR vs. Heroic/Virtus.Pro winner
- 16:15 pm CET
- Imperial vs. Team Spirit/FURIA winner
- 19:30 pm CET
- Team Liquid vs. FaZe Clan/Complexity winner
Opening Fixtures
BIG vs. The MongolZ
Although BIG has already accomplished a significant feat by reaching the playoffs, they face a tough opponent in The MongolZ, who are eager to make a historic run from the lower bracket to the later stages of the playoffs. Florian "syrsoN" Rische will be crucial for BIG if they hope to pull off a surprise turnaround. The German AWPer has been in stellar form, boasting an impressive 1.67 K/D and 84 ADR, surpassing notable players like Ilya "m0NESY" Osipov and Nikola “NiKo” Kovač.
However, despite syrsoN’s resurgence, The MongolZ’s collective strength, demonstrated previously at the Skyesports Championship 2024, gives them an edge. Munkhbold “Senzu” Azbayar, at just 18 years old, has been performing exceptionally well, averaging 85 damage per round, which could spell trouble for BIG.
Virtus.Pro vs. Heroic
Both Virtus.Pro and Heroic have had underwhelming group stage performances, making it difficult to see either team advancing much further in the tournament. Virtus.Pro’s showing, however, wasn’t as lackluster as Heroic’s, as they only fell to Liquid, who have been in top form with Russel "Twistzz" Van Dulken leading the way as the in-game leader.
On the other hand, Heroic’s loss to Ninjas in Pyjamas highlights their current struggles. Damjan “Kyxsan” Stoilkovski and his team had to go the distance in nearly every series, with only one match not needing all three maps to close out. Despite having an experienced AWPer in Abdulkhalik "degster" Gasanov, Heroic seems to be losing their footing, which might tip the scale in Virtus.Pro’s favor.
FaZe Clan vs. Complexity
This series is the highlight match of the first day of the playoffs. It's a prime opportunity for Complexity to avenge their IEM Sydney Grand Final loss to FaZe. On paper, Complexity has a solid chance of achieving an upset, especially considering FaZe’s recent performances have been anything but satisfying.
Finn "karrigan" Andersen and his squad seem to be plagued by a playoffs curse, finishing 5th-8th in five consecutive events since their victory at IEM Chengdu. This is alarming given their star-studded lineup, which might open the door for Complexity to secure a significant win. However, FaZe Clan is known for being unpredictable, so anything could happen.
Spirit vs. FURIA
Team Spirit, one of the top CIS teams, will face off against FURIA, one of Brazil's finest. Spirit has been on an impressive run, losing only one of their last eight matches, and that defeat came at the hands of another Brazilian team, MIBR. Aside from this setback, they've been showcasing excellent form and consistency.
These teams have clashed on six series in total, with Spirit boasting a flawless 6-0 record, leaving FURIA without a single win. This dominance sets the stage for an intriguing showdown, where FURIA will look to break this streak and make a statement, while Spirit are likely to extend their supremacy over the Brazilian squad.
Tournament Favorites: Team Vitality and Natus Vincere
Though FaZe Clan and Spirit are in the round of 16, the real favorites waiting in the quarterfinals are Team Vitality and Natus Vincere.
Vitality has reestablished themselves as a title-contending team after a series of playoff misfortunes that saw them exiting in the later stages. Fresh off their IEM Cologne win, they are in their prime, especially with ZywOo in top form in Malta. Their odds of going the distance and claiming the title look strong.
NaVi, the other top contender, is an obvious pick. The team is firing on all cylinders, with jL performing well and b1t delivering consistent performances. NAVI’s dominance is evident, as only two of their six recent maps saw their opponents reaching double digits in rounds.
Statistically, Vitality and NAVI are closely matched, with each team excelling in different areas. For instance, Vitality has a higher round win rate at 61.5% compared to NAVI’s 60.8%. However, NAVI's firepower gives them an edge in opening rounds, boasting a 60.8% success rate compared to Vitality's 55.2%. Meanwhile, Vitality leads in round conversions with a remarkable 39.7% success rate in 4v5 situations.
Despite the winner, the remaining stages of ESL Pro League are shaping up to set the stage on fire, so be sure to catch the Playoffs to witness which of these teams will rise and fall in Malta starting the 17th of September on ESL's official Twitch & YouTube channels.
For real-time updates, follow the official ESL Counter-Strike account on X (formerly Twitter).
You can also track all the action on the official Strafe Android and iOS apps, as well as the Strafe website.
Featured Image source: ESL, edited by Strafe Esports
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