The International 2025 Might Be The Hardest Ever

With the International 2025 Qualifiers now wrapped up, the stats community wasted no time diving into the data. Among them, Ben "Noxville" Steenhuisen, one of Dota 2’s most respected analysts, has come back with some truly eye-opening insights.

According to Noxville’s latest research, The International 2025 may be the hardest International ever — at least from a competitive balance and team strength perspective.

Noxville’s analysis doesn’t stop with TI 2025. He also included updated Glicko 2 rating data for teams competing in the Esports World Cup (EWC) 2025, as well as comparison stats from both TI and EWC 2024.

His metrics are based on the average Glicko 2 rating of all invited and qualified teams. However, he also noted a few inconsistencies in the ratings—certain anomalies that fans and analysts should take with a grain of salt.

The International 2025: A Clash of Titans

Credit: Falcons Twitter

Throughout this year, fans and analysts alike have commented on how TI 2025 feels uniquely open compared to previous editions. Historically, there’s usually been a clear favorite—or at most, a small handful of serious contenders. But 2025 has broken that mold entirely.

Noxville’s tweet now puts real numbers behind that perception and gives us an exciting set of stats to unpack. Let’s break it down and see how these figures shape expectations for both The International 2025 and the Esports World Cup 2025.

See something interesting in the Top 8 of the list? — Credit: Twitter (@Noxville)

First, let’s take a look at the Top 8 teams by average Glicko 2 rating. Two key observations immediately jump out:

1. All Gamers Global was the only team in the Top 8 that didn’t qualify for both TI and EWC, thanks to a crucial loss to Xtreme Gaming during the Asian Champions League.

2. Four of the Top 8 teams hail from Eastern Europe (EEU).

While Western Europe has historically been the dominant region in terms of fanbase and tournament wins, Eastern Europe is statistically the strongest region going into TI 2025. This was something many had speculated based on tournament results and gameplay throughout the year, but now the data confirms it.

Eastern Europe Emerges as the Region to Beat

Given these numbers, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that an Eastern European team stands the best statistical chance of lifting the Aegis this year. That puts extra spotlight and pressure on teams like Team Spirit and PARIVISION, who both sit comfortably near the top of the rankings.

EEU favorites are statistically more likely to win TI 2025. — Credit: Eric de Oliveira

This doesn’t guarantee victory, of course — Dota 2 remains one of the most unpredictable esports — but data-based edge and morale advantage certainly play a role in long tournaments like The International 2025.

The Three-Time Hopefuls Hold Their Ground

Another storyline emerging from the stats revolves around the two teams chasing their third International title: Team Spirit and Team Liquid. Both teams appear in the Top 6 of Noxville’s ranking and both have qualified for TI 2025 and the EWC 2025.

Team Liquid could also become the second back-to-back winner. — Credit: Eric de Oliveira

While Team Spirit edges out slightly ahead in the Glicko rankings, Team Liquid is not far behind. Liquid also has the unique chance to become only the second team in history to win back-to-back Internationals — a feat only achieved by OG in 2018 and 2019 with the same roster.

Nigma Galaxy: Stronger Than Expected

Stars aligned and we have another pleasant surprise from the data: Nigma Galaxy. Despite only recently clawing their way back to Tier 1 Dota via the Western Europe Qualifiers, Nigma sits 11th on the Glicko list — just behind Xtreme Gaming.

However, there’s an interesting wildcard factor here. Ghost was their carry during qualifiers, but rumors are swirling that Miracle- may return for The International 2025.

How much would bringing Miracle- back shake this roster? — Credit: Twitter (@NigmaGalaxy)

While Miracle- remains one of Dota’s most talented players, questions about his health and long-term availability linger. Switching key players before TI is risky business, especially after building momentum with the current lineup.

The Esports World Cup 2025: A Litmus Test Before TI

Finally, let’s talk about the Esports World Cup 2025 (EWC). Noxville’s data comparison between EWC and TI from both 2024 and 2025 reveals an interesting trend.

Last year, EWC 2024 had a higher overall rating average than TI 2024, and notably, the team that finished second at the EWC went on to win The International later that year.

This was the Top 4 for The International 2024 — the same as the EWC 2024 but scrambled. — Credit: Eric de Oliveira

With that historical precedent in mind, EWC 2025 may once again serve as an early preview of how teams will perform at TI. Although this year the TI average rating is higher than EWC’s, the tournament will still offer vital insights into team form, strategies, and mental resilience heading into the biggest Dota 2 event of the year.

Final Thoughts on The International 2025

There’s no doubt that The International 2025 is shaping up to be the most competitive and unpredictable edition in Dota 2 history. From Eastern Europe’s dominance to the storylines of three-time hopefuls and the return of veteran teams like Nigma Galaxy, the narrative potential is enormous.

There is no way this tournament will not have an engaging story. — Credit: Dota2

Noxville’s stats give us plenty to discuss and debate, but as always in Dota, numbers can only tell part of the story. Once the games start, it’s all about execution, adaptation, and mental fortitude.

If you want to keep up with more developments on The International 2025, the Esports World Cup 2025, and everything happening across the professional Dota 2 scene, don’t forget to check our news section over at Strafe!

Featured Image Source: Twitter (@Noxville)