Most common predictions for the 2026 Worlds semi-finalists

The Worlds has always been a highly competitive tournament. This year, in 2026, you have a field of 19 teams competing for who will eventually lift that Summoners Cup and become the Worlds 2026 champion. So, even reaching the semi-finals can be a tough task, as the tournament gets very tough early on.

However, reaching the semi-finals is a much different task than winning: there is plenty of room for a dark horse or underdog to make their way to the final four. Prediction markets can help players identify the strongest candidates, so in this guide, we will be looking at what the top prediction markets currently say are the top four most likely teams to reach the semis.

Best League of Legends Worlds 2026 prediction markets

What do Prediction Markets Say About the Worlds 2026 Semi-Finalists?

The best prediction markets, like Kalshi, always have their finger on the pulse when it comes to major esports events. By analyzing real-time trading sentiment, statistical odds, and year-round team performance, Kalshi provides an accurate picture of who is most likely to reach the semi-finals.

The table below outlines the current semi-final qualification probabilities according to Kalshi’s dedicated markets:

As the data shows, Kalshi strongly favors tournament frontrunners like Gen.G to make a deep run, followed closely by BLG, T1 , and Hanwha Life. Kalshi traders place significant confidence in Hanwha Life compared to other platforms, reflecting strong trust in their recent international pedigree.

What makes these teams such dominant contenders on Kalshi? Let’s take a closer look at the key factors driving their market odds.

What Polymarket’s Market Probabilities Reveal About the Semifinals

Top decentralized platforms like Polymarket offer a unique, community-driven perspective on competitive LoL odds. Although Polymarket currently does not have a dedicated market for teams reaching the semifinals, its outright winner market offers additional context on who the four tournament leading contenders are. By aggregating live volume and trader analysis from around the globe, Polymarket delivers a sharp forecast on which teams are on track to qualify for the semi-finals.

Here is how Polymarket traders currently rate each team’s chances of reaching the top four:

Polymarket heavily favors Gen.G as the top semi-finalist candidate, with T1 and BLG following as primary contenders. Notably, Polymarket traders are slightly more cautious on Hanwha Life Esports and G2 Esports, likely factoring in potential Swiss stage volatility and recent bracket matchups.

What drives these market valuations on Polymarket, and which teams offer the best value? Let’s break down the details.

Four Teams Most Likely to Reach the Worlds 2026 Semifinalists

All of the teams mentioned above bring plenty of strengths to the table, and most LoL fans would see they are likely to make it to the semifinals of this year's Worlds. But, why is that?

Gen.G

Gen.g have been on the run of the decade this year, dominating every major competition they were in. Ranked #2 in the Riot GPR rankings, and with a .789% win percentage, along with a 33-9 win record, there’s one thing that Gen.g does better than any other team on this list. They are consistent.

They consistently deliver and win when it counts, including their impressive win in the LCK this year by defeating Hanwha Life Esports. The esports prediction markets favour Gen.G to win the entire tournament, so it is safe to say they are a good pick to make it to the semifinals. If they continue to keep up the run of consistency, and perform strong in the Swiss stages with minimal losses, then we believe they will handily make their way to the semifinals to potentially meet some of the other teams we have highlighted on this list.

Gen.G

Bilibili Gaming

Bilibili Gaming are the primary Chinese contender in this year's Worlds tournament, and they themselves have dominated the LPL throughout this year. They are currently ranked #3 in the Riot GPR rankings, and have a win percentage of .814%, which is one of the highest in the world. When it comes to international play, they have had plenty of strong showings this year: with a win in the First Stand tournament at the start of the year, and plenty of other big international wins.

What will determine BLGs success is their quarter final opponent. They will perform well in the Swiss stages, they are just a strong team. If they get paired against another Chinese, or Western team, I would be confident to back them to reach the semifinals. However, if they end up seeded against one of the Korean contenders, like Gen.G or Hanwha Life Esports, I would be less confident, as those are two teams they have not defeated at all this year.

Bilibili Gaming

T1

T1 is one of the most legendary teams that have ever competed in the LoL Worlds tournament. Historically, they have dominated the tournament: with six titles, the most in Worlds history. Of course, along with those six titles, countless other semifinals are also on their resume. Their experience in these high pressure matches and in knockout stages in particular means they could be a sleeper pick to make it to the semifinals.

The only major weakness with T1 currently is recent form. But, one factor you have to consider is being a credible semifinal pick is completely different from being a credible champion. True, given T1s poor form this year it is unlikely they will win the tournament. But, they are certainly not to be underestimated, and it is absolutely likely that they can perform well in this tournament to reach the semifinals. After all, a poor performance by T1 would be a great one by many other teams.

T1

Hanwha Life Esports

Hanwha Life Esports are currently considered, by Riot themselves, to be the best team in the world right now. Ranked #1, with a win record of 28-13, a case can certainly be made for them to have a strong performance in the tournament. They have had a solid year throughout the season, winning the MSI (Mid-Season Invitational) by defeating Bilibili Gaming in the finals.

However, the one fact that can’t be overlooked is that they can fall short when facing a team of equal merit to them: their loss to Gen.G in the LCK finals is an example of that. This is why the prediction markets, as covered on Polymarket and in our Kalshi review, tend to favour other teams over Hanwha Life.

Ultimately, Hanwha Life have a very good chance of making it to the semifinals, but it depends on if the bracket is favorable to them. If they get matched up with a strong team like Gen.G in the quarterfinals, it is unlikely. But, many pairings for them could be favorable.

Hanwha Life Esports

Which Outsiders Could Reach the Semifinals?

While the four teams above are currently the most likely to reach the semifinals, there’s still plenty of dark horses or underdogs that could potentially reach the semifinals. The prediction markets are always changing, so let’s cover some of the most likely of these underdogs:

Best League of Legends Worlds 2026 prediction markets

What Factors Could Influence the Semi-Finalists?

The predictions currently on Kalshi and Polymarket seem pretty solid, but this can always change as the tournament unfolds.

As we say in our Polymarket review, these prediction markets are always updating the markets based on current market opinion and statistical analysis, so there is a number of factors that could influence who the semifinalists will be. Here’s what to keep an eye out for:

• Swiss stage performance - The Swiss stage is the first major stage of the Worlds, and for many teams, it can be a make or break for teams. Essentially, you are seeded against every team. You need to win three to qualify for the quarterfinals, and if you lose, you are eliminated. Momentum is everything, as every team that gets 3-0 in the Swiss stage has the advantage of being first seeded against the two 3-2 teams, meanwhile the four 3-1 teams are all seeded against each other. So, it does not benefit a team to just scrape by: you need momentum to carry on over into the knockout stages.

• Quarter final draw - This is essential for qualification for the semis, as a bad stylistic matchup could eliminate a favorite early. As we talked about also, the seeding favors the teams who dominated in the Swiss stages. But, let’s say both Hanwha and Gen.G lose a game each, ending the Swiss stages at 3-1. If they are paired up against each other, this could easily end Hanwha’s semifinal hopes. Despite a strong showing in the Swiss stages, this is just a bad matchup for Hanwha.

Who will face off against each other in the 2026 LoL Worlds semi-finals at Credit Union of Texas Event Center?

Anything can happen in the Worlds 2026

So, the four leading candidates to make it to the semifinals this year are Gen.G, Hanwha Life Esports, T1 and Bilibili Gaming. These are some strong candidates, and I’d certainly be confident to tell you to back any of these teams to make it that far.

But, performances in the Swiss stages and the quarterfinals can be everything, with the brackets and the early performances could affect everything. One thing is for certain: top video game prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, will keep their markets up to date as the Worlds 2026 unfolds.