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CS:GO Case Odds - Unlocking the Best Cases and Skins

James Leeland

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Editor

Publish Date: 17/10/2024

Fact checked by: Alyx Tzamantanis

Key Points

No player is more likely to get a rare skin
You must purchase a key to open your CS:GO case
Case odds depend on the rarity of the skin

So, you’ve heard all about CS:GO skins, but want to learn about the odds of getting your hands on certain ones? Well, you’ve come to the right place! This CS:GO case odds guide is the place to be.

We will be talking about how likely you are to find an ultra-rare skin compared to revealing a common skin. We’ll also provide you with some information on whether you are better off buying a case or a skin, depending on your strategy and budget. Either way, stick with us to explore your options and CS:GO case chances.

▶️ The Range of the CS:GO Case Odds

CS:GO case odds: What does it mean?

CS:GO skins come in a variety of designs and conditions, which are all different rarities. CS case odds refer to the chance you have of obtaining specific skins, depending on how rare they are. At first, when skins were initially launched, players were in the dark about the case odds. These days, players have got wise as to how to uncover these odds. Why, you might ask? Well, if you know your chances of getting hold of certain skins, it manages your expectation, especially when hunting for the most expensive CS:GO skin.

CS:GO case chances: How likely you are to get certain cases

Check out the below table to view the odds of getting your hands on specific cases, depending on their rarity:

🔍 Quality	📝 Probability
Mil-Spec	79.92327%
Restricted	15.98465%
Classified	3.19693%
Covert	0.63939%
Special Items and Knives	0.25575%

What we know about the CS case odds

Looking at the above table, we can see that you have a bigger chance of revealing a Mil-Spec skin in a CS:GO case. Furthermore, you can also see that the Special Items and Knives skin is the rarest of them all, making it pretty hard to get your hands on. Of course, this means that many players are looking at getting this type of skin, as it’s incredibly sought-after by players hunting for the best CS:GO skins.

StatTrack items and CS:GO case odds

If you’re new to the world of CS:GO, you might not realize that every item in the categories in the above table has a 10% chance at turning into a StatTrack item. When this happens, it makes your item very rare and valuable when compared to other skins.

Here are the chances of your skin being a StatTrack item:

🔍 Quality	▶️ Probability of StatTrack
Mil-Spec	7.99233%
Restricted	1.59847%
Classified	0.31969%
Covert	0.06394%
Special Items and Knives	0.02558%

A deeper understanding of how CS2 case odds work

Now that you know all about the variety of qualities and probabilities, you should also understand how these odds really work in reality. Every CS:GO case has a universal drop rate, which means that all cases have the same odds of revealing a valuable or rare skin.

Let’s say you purchase a really expensive case, for example, you have the same odds of getting a rare skin than if you bought a cheaper case. CS:GO has made it impossible for players to create a system where they can gain an unfair advantage or a large collection of rare skins. How rare skins are dropped is well-balanced and fair to all players. This system ensures fairness across the board, which is why CS:GO float values are so important when evaluating the value of any skin you might pull from a case.

👍 Understand how CS2 case odds work

Cases vs skins: Which one should you buy?

Let’s be honest for a moment, purchasing cases is incredibly easy. But on the flip side, you are not guaranteed to get a good skin. If you really want to get a rare skin, the alternative is to buy one, but this usually means you will pay a lot more than you would if you just bought a case.

In this situation, there is no clear winner. All you can do is weigh up the pros and cons of buying a case or a skin and consider which one is better for you. It’s all down to individual preferences and budgets.

With this in mind, let’s have a look at some advantages and disadvantages:

Evaluating buying a case:

When it comes to buying a case, it’s all down to pure chance, which the odds on this page can help guide you through. Every time you buy a case, you might get the rarest skin, or on the flip side you could find a really common skin that isn’t worth too much at all. If you don’t mind too much about how rare it is, then buying cases is certainly an option for you.

Keep in mind that you could always buy a case without opening it and sell it later on. An unopened case would potentially sell for more than a skin, as the buyers have the chance of finding an ultra-rare skin inside.

Pros and cons of buying a skin:

Skins are easy to purchase, making them widely accessible to every player. All you need to do is visit a website that sells them and buy them at affordable prices. Of course, the rarer the skin, the bigger the price, but you are bound to find something within your price range.

If you do actually use them in the game, the quality of your skins will never diminish, meaning that you can sell them at a later date. Just keep in mind that you are not guaranteed to earn your money back, as certain skins become ‘in trend’ which makes them rise or fall in value frequently.

Weighing up the pros and cons of CS:GO cases

Boomerang Bet pros and cons

Great odds on rare cases
Budget-friendly options
Easy to understand

Can be expensive

Conclusion

Ultimately, CS:GO have incredibly fair odds so that no player is more likely to walk away with a rare skin than anyone else. Because of how fair CS:GO case odds are, if a player happens to have a collection of ultra-rare skins, it’s either a coincidence or they have purchased them. The fairness of CS odds ensures that rare skin collections are either the result of luck or smart purchases, like buying the best CS:GO cases.

Do you want to purchase a case or a skin? After evaluating the odds, the choice is yours.

CS2 case odds FAQ

❓ How do case odds work?

When you open a case, regardless of how many cases you open, you are no more likely to get a rare skin than anyone else. CS:GO operates a totally fair policy, keeping the game 100% random.

🧐 Can I purchase a CS:GO skin?

Yes, you have the option to buy a skin from another player, if you would rather pick out a skin you prefer.

🔍 Do I need to buy a CS:GO case?

No, you don’t have to purchase a case on CS:GO, but you will need to buy a key to open it. Keys are usually around $2.50, which makes them accessible to most players.