Want to know how to use an EV betting calculator? Then look no further as we’ve created this handy guide that shows you the best ways to take your sports bets up a level! Give your bankroll a boost with this tried and tested strategy.
There are plenty of reasons to use an expected betting calculator. Once you start calculating expected value with PromoGuy, sports betting becomes much more interesting and you'll start seeing consistent improvements in your ROI. So keep reading to see how an EV betting calculator works!
|December 2021||175 Picks||66 Wins||37.70 Win %||428.36 Monthly Net||17380.32 YTD Net|
|January 2022||195 Picks||83 Wins||42.56 Win %||2,716.10 Monthly Net||2716.10 YTD Net|
|February 2022||162 Picks||68 Wins||41.98 Win %||840.35 Monthly Net||3556.46 YTD Net|
|See full betting history in the tracker sheet|
An EV betting calculator is a tool that simply lets you calculate the expected value of a given sports bet. Expected value refers to how much you can expect to win or lose if you placed a bet on the same odds over and over again.
The theory is that calculating expected value lets you see whether a sportsbook has put on any ‘value bets’. These are where the sportsbook has made an error in their odds calculations and could potentially be giving you the potential to make much better returns than other sportsbooks.
If you look at a sportsbook’s odds, it is basically giving you an indication of what the probability of something happening is. It could be something like the probability of the New York Yankees winning their next MLB game or Patrick Mahomes throwing over a certain number of yards in the next Chiefs game.
These probabilities are purely subjective predictions, and so there’s every chance that they could be wide of the mark. You could simply look at the odds and think that they are wrong, but an EV betting calculator helps you be a little more clinical in how you approach any sports bets.
This is because an EV betting calculator offers you a way of examining sports bets in a way that reveals their implied probability as a percentage. You will then be able to examine this implied probability and make a much easier assessment of whether it’s too optimistic, too pessimistic, or just about right.
If the EV betting calculator reveals that the implied probability of something happening is less than your own prediction, it would be classed as a value bet and would therefore give you a better return than what you’d probably find elsewhere.
It’s probably better to illustrate how an EV betting calculator works with an example. So let’s say there was a football game between the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants. The Cardinals were the favorites and a sportsbook had the team down with odds of -200 to win.
You wanted to find out whether the implied probability behind these odds were accurate. This is where you’d bring out your EV betting calculator and enter in this formula:
200 / (200 + 100) * 100
This would reveal the implied probability of a Cardinals win was 66.7%. While you agreed that the Cardinals were the favorite, you felt that their victory was certain and closer to 80%. As such, you’d feel that the sportsbook’s odds were a value bet and would therefore give you much better returns than you’ll normally get.
Now let’s look at the Giants’ odds. The sportsbook felt that the Giants were a clear underdog and had the team at odds of +350 to win. So you’d enter the following value into your EV betting calculator:
100 / (350+100) * 100
This calculation would show that the sportsbook had given the Giants an implied probability of just 22.2% to beat the Cardinals. However, you felt that the Giants were better than this and that the sportsbook had put on another value bet.
All of which is a reminder that if the implied probability of something happening is less than your own predictions, it’s a value bet. This doesn’t mean that it is definitely going to happen, just that the sportsbook may be a little wayward with its odds.
By now you will realize that expected value gives you a great way of accurately seeing the probability behind a sportsbook’s odds. However, we should note that these sportsbooks will be working hard to keep their odds as accurate as possible. After all, they put in plenty of effort to maintain the betting margin or ‘vig’ that’s included in each bet that they offer. Despite this, if you follow these tips, you might stand a better chance of encountering some value bets:
There’s plenty of reason why you should bet well in advance of a sporting event. This is because a lot can change in terms of injuries and other occurrences. As such, a sportsbook is likely to adjust its odds in the run-up to the game. This is why value bets tend to crop up relatively early and offer you a great chance to take advantage of the generous odds.
Most bettors will tend to bet on the favorite as they will want to win their bets. However, expected value betting is about trying to find the edge in the odds. This is more likely to be found when backing the underdog as fewer people will consider a losing option.
Sportsbooks will be extra careful with their odds for those massive games like the World Series or even for certain teams like the Chicago Bears. After all, there is plenty of scrutiny on these sporting events, and you’re less likely to find any bets.
Being able to use an expected value betting calculator online is a pretty recent innovation, and so we can expect to see many more advances in how you can use this handy tool in the future. So we’ll be keeping these betting guides constantly updated so that you can always get an edge on your sports bets.
After all, the online sportsbooks will be doing all they can to minimize the number of value bets that they put on, and so you’ll need all of the help you can get. So be sure to check back here and make sure that you’re always in the best place to spot any value bets.
Read our guide to see what a positive EV betting calculator is and where you can find this important tool. We’ll give you a basic guide to EV betting so that you understand exactly what kinds of values you will need to type into the calculator. All of which should help you see whether there are any value bets waiting for you at an online sportsbook.
Check out our guide and we will give you a simple yet thorough explanation of how an EV betting calculator works. This will walk you through all of the steps the betting edge calculator takes to reveal how much of an edge there is in a particular sports bet. This means that you will be perfectly placed to see whether you should bet on the odds or leave them well alone.
Our guide will give you the lowdown on what positive EV betting means and it will reveal how you can use an EV betting calculator too. This will help you see how accurate an online sportsbook’s odds are so that you’ll know whether you should give them a try. All you need to get a decent answer to the question of ‘Is value betting profitable?’.
Be sure to read our guide to see how you can use an EV betting calculator to calculate the true value of any sports bet. We will reveal how the calculator is able to use certain values in terms of odds to show you a sportbook’s implied probability. This means that you’ll be perfectly placed to see whether that sportbook’s predictions are off-target meaning that you can swoop in and take advantage of the value bets.
Check out our guide that shows you how to use an EV betting calculator so that you can quickly and easily calculate your own odds. We’ll show you what kinds of values you will need to input and reveal what the results actually mean at the end. All of which should mean that you will be well placed to calculate your own odds and then compare them to a sportsbook to see where the value is.
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