Expected Value Betting Explained: What does +EV Betting mean?

What is EV sports betting?

EV betting is where you try and measure the difference in probability between a sportsbook’s expectations of what could happen in a sporting event and your own expectations.

You can see a sportsbook’s expectations of what’s going to happen in its betting odds. These odds can be translated into something called ‘implied probability’ which is an invaluable part of what EV betting is all about.  Your job is to analyze the odds on offer to see which bets offer you an edge over the sportsbook.

This means that you aren’t necessarily putting down a bet on who you think will win. Instead, it’s more of a long term approach where you are aiming to take advantage of any ‘value’ offered in the bets.

While there might be a clear favorite to win an NFL game, you might think that the sportsbook has got the underdog’s chances of winning at too low a probability. This is where you’d swoop in and take advantage of the much longer odds in the hope of getting a good value return on your bets.

Calculating betting odds into implied probability

Implied probability will either be seen as having positive expected value or negative expected value. Positive expected value refers to a team having a better than 50% chance of winning while negative expected value refers to a team having a less than 50% chance of winning.

It’s pretty easy to convert any odds you see into a winning probability. For a bet with positive odds, you would divide 100 by these positive odds plus 100. So if it was a bet of +160 for the New York Jets to beat Atlanta Falcons, you would divide 100 by 260. This would give you a result of 0.384 or 38.4% which is negative expected value.

However, the Falcons were the favorites to win and had odds of -190. Here you would divide the odds by the odds plus 100. So here it would be -190 divided by -90. This would give you a result of 65.52% which is positive expected value.

Why do you need to know what EV betting is?

So far, everything that we’ve looked at seems pretty theoretical but the way that you analyze the bets gives you a big advantage against other bettors. This is because you are taking an entirely different approach as you aren’t just looking to see which teams are likely to win.

Instead you will be examining the probabilities served up by sportsbooks and hoping to spot when a value bet turns up. This is where you will be taking advantage of an odds discrepancy and you’d pounce on these bets before the sportsbook changes its mind. It won’t help you win every bet you make, but it can help you make better returns over the long-term.

Tips for EV betting

We won’t just leave you hanging with the bare theoretical framework of how EV betting works. Instead, we’ll give you some handy tips that you can use to make a success with this betting strategy. Here’s what you need to do:

Get in early: All experienced EV betting fans know that value bets are far more likely to crop up when the sportsbook first puts on its odds. This means that you should scout around the sportsbooks whenever a new betting week is upon us to take advantage of any value bets before the sportsbook can adjust its betting lines.

Avoid the favorites: Sports fans tend to follow the herd and this is something that sportsbooks will pick up on. As such, the sportsbooks will be very strict in terms of the bets that they put down for the team most likely to win. Thankfully this means that the odds for the underdog have a better chance of being undervalued and this is where you can find your value bets.

Don’t bet on your favorite team: All experienced sports fans know to avoid betting on their personal favorite teams. This is because this would involve emotions and such an approach is the direct opposite of the cool and calculated approach needed to successfully carry out EV betting.

Get specialized: It’s fair to say that sportsbooks will always keep their odds as tight as possible for those massive sporting events like the Super Bowl and the NBA Finals. However, you can often find better value in the bets by betting on some of the more niche sports. We’re not saying that you should bet on Bulgarian table tennis every time, but consider betting on those sporting events that are just out of the spotlight.

Use different sportsbooks: Expected value betting can only be successful when you find value bets. You’ll have a much better chance of doing this if you shop around the many different online sportsbooks. After all, this will give you a much greater range of odds to pick and choose from. Plus as it’s a competitive environment, the sportsbooks will be trying to outdo each other with their odds. This means that some sportsbooks may occasionally be willing to lower their betting margins or ‘vig’ and put on market-beating odds. This is where you would swoop in and take advantage of the odds on offer. All of which should make for some successful expected value betting.

Conclusion - Check back for more EV betting advice

The great thing about EV betting is that once you get started with this strategy, it’ll reinvent the way that you approach sports betting. This is because you’ll be thinking much more critically about betting on sport. No more blindly backing your favorite team, as you’ll be thinking carefully about the contrast between your predictions and the probabilities put on by the sportsbooks.

As such, we can see that EV betting is a strategy that requires plenty of research and analysis. This means that you should keep checking back to these guides to make sure that you’re up to speed with all of the latest sport betting trends. So watch this space to always have the edge when enjoying EV betting.

1.877

Pick

898

Wins

21.5%

ROI

EV Betting FAQ